LOCALIZED INSIGHTS ON HEALTHY NC 2030
COMMUNITY SPECIFIC TRENDS AND PREDICTIONS
Through our partnerships and conversations with policy experts, decision-makers, and community members, we have provided localized, relevant insights regarding the 21 metrics outlined in the Healthy NC 2030 report. Below are a select group of the insights we have shared with the community.
Click here to learn more about the Healthy NC 2030 report and how we are using these metrics as an anchor for our Community Data Platform.
We will be releasing an interactive, localized dashboard in fall 2021, which will allow community members and decision-makers to drill down to the tract level for the community metrics outlined in the Healthy NC 2030 report. Stay tuned for updates!
Individuals Below 200% FPL
Cape Fear Region Falling Short of 2030 Indicator 1 Target
GAM PROJECTIONS FOR POPULATION LIVING UNDER 200% of FPL
Without intervention, our projections predict that 6 of the 8 counties in our impact region will not meet the Healthy NC Indicator 1 target by 2030.
In fact, Onslow County’s population will experience a slight increase in poverty according to our model.
Brunswick & Pender Counties are projected to reach the 27% target within a few years — a more ambitious target may be needed for these counties if NC is to achieve its goal.
Steady Downward Trend in Unemployment Racial Disparity
Black to White Unemployment Ratio Tract Mean (2015-2019)
In the average NC census tract, the Black labor force is ~2X as likely to be unemployed as the White, and this disparity has grown over time. But in the Cape Fear region, the disparity is shrinking for many counties.
Tract means in New Hanover, Robeson, and Duplin County are at or near the 2030 target, but progress has slowed. Tracts in Bladen, Columbus, and Onslow experience little to no disparity between Black and White unemployment.
Adverse Childhood Experiences
Disconnected Youth Ignored by Cape Fear Region
GAM PROJECTIONs FOR POPULATION 16-19 Not Working/In School
Although the state and Cape Fear region performed similarly in 2018, our projections have them on different paths.
The rest of the state is on track to all but eliminate the problem of disconnected youth, but the Cape Fear region has stagnated.
For example, Columbus County has experienced an average yearly 4% increase in teens not working or school.
9 in 10 Children Live in Poverty in Wilmington Neighborhood
Population Under 18 Living Under FPL, top 20 census Tracts
Wilmington’s Lake Forest neighborhood ranks 3rd out of the state’s 2,195 tracts for children living in poverty.
Nationally, New Hanover 110 is ranked 127th out of over 73,000 census tracts, worse than 99.8% of tracts in the U.S.
From 2010 to 2019, the percent of children living in poverty in this tract saw a 31% increase.
Limited Access to Healthy Food
Food Deserts in Cape Fear Emerging 6 Times Faster than the US
USDA Food Deserts 2013 – 2019, CFC Predictions 2020
Between 2013 and 2017, there was a modest increase (3%) in the number of food deserts across the United States. During this same time period, the Cape Fear region gained six new food deserts (26% increase).
A logistic regression model, developed in partnership with the Institute for Advance Analytics at NCSU, indicates that the numbers have grown significantly across the United States and that the Cape Fear region has continued to be disproportionately impacted.
White, Asian Residents Less Likely to Live in Food Deserts
Population Living In Food Deserts by Race/Ethnicity
In the Cape Fear region, 39.1% of the Hawaiian Native/ Pacific Islander population* lives in a food desert.
38% of the population identifying as American Indian or Alaskan Native lives in an area designated as a food desert. The Black and Hispanic populations are also more likely to live in food deserts (34% and 24.6%, respectively) than their White and Asian peers.
*Hawaiian Native/ Pacific Islanders comprise less than 1% of the area’s total population.
Severe Housing Problems
Cape Fear Counties Underperforming State on Indicator 9
Occupied Units With Housing Problems Tract Quartiles
Except for Onslow County, every county in the region has a median higher than the states.
The state has been steadily declining from 15.8% to 14.2%, but Cape Fear tracts have seen a <1% decrease over a 5-year period, or <0.5% if Onslow is excluded.
In contrast to the rest of the region, Robeson County has seen a steady downward trend since 2014.
Cities Improving, Exurbs Getting Worse for Indicator 9
Avg. Yearly Change iN Severe Housing Problems (2013-2017)
Most tracts in Wilmington’s center have experienced a 10% to 20% decrease for Indicator 9, but areas outside the city experienced increases due to development and rising housing costs.
1 in 3 Cape Fear census tracts saw an increase in the percentage of units with severe housing problems from 2013 to 2017.
Majority-Black Counties Experience Higher Infant Mortality
Infant Deaths Per 1,000 Live Births by Population Black
Of the 8 Cape Fear counties we examined for this indicator, only New Hanover is currently meeting the Healthy NC 2030 target of 6 mortalities per 1,000 live births: Robeson 11.2, Bladen 9.7, Columbus 9.1, Duplin 8.1, Pender 8.0, Brunswick 6.7, Onslow 6.4 and New Hanover 4.7
Teen Birth Rate
Serious Racial, Ethnic Disparities in Teen Pregnancy
Births per 1,000 Females 15-19 By Race/Ethnicity
Teen pregnancy can have dire negative consequences for health, educational attainment, employment, and future income.
In North Carolina, Hispanic teens are roughly 2.5X more likely than their White peers to experience a pregnancy, while Black teens are roughly 1.8X more likely. In New Hanover County, the disparity is even starker. Black teens are over 4.6X more likely to have given birth than White teens, while Hispanic teens are almost 6X more likely.